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Fooled by randomness

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Economics & FinancePsychologyPhilosophy
Featured in: Taleb's Incerto reading guide
Publish date
2001
Publisher
Wiley-VCH
Description
Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Fooled by Randomness examines the pervasive influence of chance, probability, and luck on professional success, focusing primarily on financial markets. The book argues that humans consistently confuse luck with skill due to cognitive biases such as survivorship bias, which leads individuals to overestimate their control over unpredictable outcomes. It further illustrates how statistical illusions distort perception of risk and competence. This work is intended for investors, business professionals, and general readers interested in probability, behavioral economics, and decision-making under uncertainty.
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Books cited in Fooled by randomness

Suggested by AI, not verified against the full text. Check the original book before using them as a source.

  1. An Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding

    David Hume

    Citation

    Introduces the classic problem of induction illustrated by the black swan metaphor.

    High relevanceExplore

  2. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases

    Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, and Amos Tversky

    Citation

    Explores cognitive biases and heuristic errors humans make when assessing probability.

    High relevanceExplore

  3. The Logic of Scientific Discovery

    Karl Popper

    Citation

    Provides the epistemological framework of falsificationism that underpins Taleb's critique of induction.

    High relevanceExplore

  4. The Fractal Geometry of Nature

    Benoit Mandelbrot

    Citation

    Influences Taleb's understanding of fat-tailed distributions and roughness in financial markets.

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  5. The Alchemy of Finance

    George Soros

    Citation

    Exemplifies a successful practitioner who embraces fallibility and reflexivity in markets.

    High relevanceExplore

  6. Descartes' Error

    Antonio Damasio

    Citation

    Highlights the essential biological role of emotions in human decision-making and risk perception.

    Medium relevanceExplore

  7. Pensées

    Blaise Pascal

    Citation

    Discussed regarding decision-making under uncertainty and probabilistic wagers.

    Medium relevanceExplore

  8. Essays

    Michel de Montaigne

    Citation

    Inspires the classical skeptical attitude and intellectual humility advocated throughout the book.

    Medium relevanceExplore

  9. The Selfish Gene

    Richard Dawkins

    Citation

    Referenced to discuss evolutionary adaptation and the misinterpretation of survival as fitness.

    Medium relevanceExplore

  10. Irrational Exuberance

    Robert J. Shiller

    Citation

    Discussed regarding market overvaluation, herd behavior, and speculative market volatility.

    Medium relevanceExplore

  11. Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

    Peter L. Bernstein

    Citation

    Referenced regarding the historical evolution of probability and risk measurement.

    Medium relevanceExplore

  12. The World as Will and Representation

    Arthur Schopenhauer

    Citation

    Referenced in reflections on philosophical skepticism and human self-deception.

    Medium relevanceExplore

There may be more citations. We show up to 12 per book to keep the list manageable.

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